Transition into first intercourse, marriage, and childbearing among Ethiopian women.

Demographic decompositions of recent fertility decline in urban Ethiopia identify delayed marriage among recent cohorts of women as a major component of the decline in urban fertility (Sibanda et al., 2003; Lindstrom and Woubalem, 2003). Studies conducted in other sub-Saharan African countries find that as age at marriage increases, premarital sex becomes increasingly common, often leading to a rise in premarital fertility (Bledsoe and Cohen, 1993; Gage-Brandon and Meekers, 1993; Meekers and Ahmed, 2000). This increase in premarital fertility typically is linked to increases in the autonomy of women (education and labor force participation), a weakening of family controls over the sexual behaviors of daughters associated with migration to cities, and the opportunities and lifestyles associated with urban residence. A rise in adolescent premarital sexual activity in the context of delayed marriage, however, is far from universal in African countries. A recent comprehensive analysis of adolescent transitions into adulthood using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) found that in 7 of the 27 African countries examined, no inter-cohort change had occurred in the percent of women who had premarital sex by age 18, even though the percent marrying by age 18 had declined in 24 of the countries (National Research Council, 2005:199). Mensch, Grant and Blanc (2006) also report in a similar multi-country analysis of the DHS that the data do not support the claim that the delay in marriage in Africa has resulted in a pervasive shift toward earlier sexual initiation. In Ethiopia, a society in which childbearing outside of marriage traditionally has not been tolerated, the rise in age at marriage has not been accompanied by a rise in premarital fertility. In fact, in an analysis of fertility change in Addis Ababa based on the 1984 and 1994 censuses, Lindstrom and Woubalem (2003) find that non-marital fertility actually declined during the